Observations of a Global Nomad

From the start, my friends and family and I have compared the revolution in Egypt to that in Indonesia, which we actually lived through. 

We went through the financial crisis in 1997, the riots in 1998, the first election in 1999, and the various bombings, the Dayak revolt, the religious fighting in Maluku, and the ends of the wars in East Timor and Aceh. We saw the rise and fall of such entertaining political characters as BJ Habibie, Megawati Sukarnoputri, Gus Dur, Amien Rais and Wiranto. 

The most interesting aspect about Indonesia’s “democratic revolution” is that it left most of the elites in place. It got rid of the dictator, but barely changed the constitution and kept most of the other power players in place. The article notes that Indonesia, while more free and progressive than ever before, still has a lot of problems which aren’t handled well by the burgeoning oligarchy, ever less sensitive to social inequality and other issues. 

But if there’s anything you can say about Indonesia’s transition, it’s that it was relatively unbloodied. If Egypt does follow, more or less, in Indonesia’s footsteps, at the very least we can hope that fewer people may die than otherwise. 

Remember last year…

In Libya, when Qaddafi was marching on Bengazi and the people there cried out for help? 

It sounds a lot like what everyone was afraid was going to happen there, is already happening in Homs in Syria. 

But I don’t see Sarkozy gallivanting away. 

The modern national border is a European invention that has been exported around the globe, providing a ready source of conflict and bloodshed. In Africa and the Middle East, borders drawn by imperial hands no longer make sense — they are wars waiting to happen. The Korean DMZ has outlived the Cold War as a nuclear flashpoint. Even in relatively peaceful and stable parts of the world, borders remain problematic. Think Kosovo, where Europe’s newest hostile border has been drawn. Or the U.S.-Mexico border.

Foreign Policy is partnering with the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting to commission a series of reports on borderlands, culminating in the publication of three e-books on the topic. TheForeign Policy reports and e-books will be a core part of a broader Pulitzer Center initiative addressing this topic on multiple media platforms and with a variety of approaches. The Pulitzer Center is offering a $5,000 stipend plus travel expenses for each of the three e-book projects, which will be selected and edited by Foreign Policy. The Pulitzer Center will serve as consultant and will promote further discussion of these topics through our Campus Consortium and Global Gateway outreach programs.

For the e-books project, we are looking for experienced writers who can deliver rich narrative and thoughtful analysis on how borders shape the way people in various parts of the world experience their lives. The reporting should focus on one border or one region.

Proposals of no more than 500 words and a travel budget should be submitted online toeditor@foreignpolicy.com or travelgrants@pulitzercenter.org by Feb. 6. Please include “Borders” in the subject line and attach a CV.

I want to denounce in the strongest possible manner the entire process that led to the signature of this agreement: no inclusion of civil society organisations, a lack of transparency from the start of the negotiations, repeated postponing of the signature of the text without an explanation being ever given, exclusion of the EU Parliament’s demands that were expressed on several occasions in our assembly.

As rapporteur of this text, I have faced never-before-seen manoeuvres from the right wing of this Parliament to impose a rushed calendar before public opinion could be alerted, thus depriving the Parliament of its right to expression and of the tools at its disposal to convey citizens’ legitimate demands.

Everyone knows the ACTA agreement is problematic, whether it is its impact on civil liberties, the way it makes Internet access providers liable, its consequences on generic drugs manufacturing, or how little protection it gives to our geographical indications.

This agreement might have major consequences on citizens’ lives, and still, everything is being done to prevent the European Parliament from having its say in this matter. That is why today, as I release this report for which I was in charge, I want to send a strong signal and alert the public opinion about this unacceptable situation. I will not take part in this masquerade.

The French Senate has approved a controversial bill that makes it a criminal offence to deny that genocide was committed by Ottoman Turks against Armenians during World War I.

That really is a controversial bill. The trouble is that there were population moves of lots of people during that time. Everyone was obsessed with race and nationality at the time, and it was encouraged even more by Self Determination. The Ottoman Empire, despite its many problems, was a cosmopolitan one where it was normal to have Arabs, Turks, Greeks, Armenians, and Jews all interacting. But by World War 1, it suddenly mattered a lot who was Muslim and who was Christian, who was a Turk and who wasn’t. 

If anything it must be understood in context. When the Russians attacked in the Caucasus, they had the Armenians there on their side who were little more than brigands, driving Turkish refugees into Anatolia and committing many, many atrocities against Muslims along the way. At the time, there were Armenians spread all over the Empire, but it suddenly mattered. 

And there are probably only vague orders about the security of the empire that led to the attempt at a population move, but millions of people still died in forced death marches across deserts without food or water. It’s a fact that it happened, the question has always been whether it was with full and pre-meditated intention. 

But let’s not forget that at the end of the war, with the Ottoman Empire collapsing, the British promised the Greeks basically all of western Anatolia without asking the Turks, which led to the Greco-Turkish War of 1921-1923, a particularly bloody and racially charged affair as the Greeks tried to land and take it for themselves. The treaty which ended it decided that the best solution would be for all the ethnic Greeks to move to Greece, and all the Muslims in Greece to move to Turkey. 

Which might sound good on paper, but it was basically moving millions of people who were technically different in religion and names, but practically Greek or practically Turkish. And frankly, a lot of people died on those moves too. 

Yes, millions of Armenians died and it was possibly intended as such. But honestly, that was just how things were at the time. No one cries over the mutilated Turks during the Balkan Wars, or the Muslims driven out of the Caucasus into Turkey by rape, pillage and essentially ethnic cleansing. No one remembers how the Greeks landed at Smyrna (now Izmir) at the place where the original Crusaders landed, not somewhere more sensible, and basically cleansed the Turkish quarter of the city. When the Turks retook the city, they were then motivated to cleanse the Greek quarter of the city. 

And by cleanse, I really do mean rape, loot, burn, crucify, torture, kill and all the horrible things that soldiers have tended to do when their blood is up, discipline is gone, and they’ve had a very bad war. For some reason, when mutilating women, they often feel the need to stab the groin or cut off the breasts or something gruesome and particularly aimed at sexual areas. 

But who knows what goes through the mind of a soldier after seeing atrocities and going through bloodshed and finally winning a difficult battle. 

It’s possible the Ottoman State was suffering from the same thing, in a way, when they rounded up the Armenians and told them to walk, without ever really having a destination for them to end at. 

I have to applaud the move to a smarter strategy with a focus on actual strategic interests, not merely those with apparent value. 

It can appear confrontational with China, and Xinhua has to say what it does, but I’m sure it’s not actually a containment strategy, but preparing in case it needs to have one. It is not in China’s interest to militarily bully Asia, neither is it America’s, but just in case… 

I’m curious about what America will say. Republicans will be typical, and there will undoubtedly be disenfranchised soldiers and workers of related industries who will find themselves without jobs. BBC also reports that there are apparently 200,000 new jobs, so if the rate keeps up… 

At the start of 2012, here are the four countries we all need to watch closely: Italy, Iran, Pakistan and North Korea.

The discussion everywhere these days is about Iran’s strength. Mitt Romney, the Republican front-runner, describes Iran as “the greatest threat that the world faces over the next decade.” He and others are impressed by Iran’s recent declarations about its nuclear capacities and its missile tests. Newt Gingrich has compared the Iranian challenge to the rise of Hitler’s Germany. More measured commentators also see Iran’s rising influence and power across the Middle East.

In fact, the real story is that Iran is weak and getting weaker. Sanctions have pushed its economy into a nose-dive. The political system is fractured and fragmenting. Abroad, its closest ally and the regime of which it is almost the sole supporter - Syria - is itself crumbling. The Persian Gulf monarchies have banded together against Iran and shored up their relations with Washington. Last week, Saudi Arabia closed its largest-ever purchase of U.S. weaponry. Meanwhile, Europe is close to approving even more intense sanctions against Tehran.

liberal-linguaphile:

Early this morning, 3,000 police and soldiers arrived in Rocinha, the biggest slum in Rio, all of Brazil, and even Latin America, to begin the process of pacification. They arrived heavily armed, some in armored tanks. By the afternoon, troops hoisted the state and national flags, declaring the favela under state control. The massive operation met no resistance, and not a single shot was fired.

You invade a favela in the name of peace, heavily armed and in armored tanks?

But wait, Brazilian officials also warned everyone (including criminals…) a week in advance they’d be occupying the area? Okay, now that’s just silly. No wonder no shots were fired. There was no one left to shoot them. 

Brazil, just another Latin American country not doing their job.

It might be worth considering the politics of the decision. Very often politics is about saying one thing and doing another. In most ideal situations, it’s necessary to say one thing to please the masses, and do another to actually get things done. Such is the price of attempting to reconcile democracy with action. 

After all, what would heavily armed Brazilian troops occupying an armed favela result in? Firefight, bloodshed, riot, and crisis. It’s never good to kill your own citizens, especially in a country attempting to be a democracy. 

It helps to think deviously. What would be the benefit of warning them ahead of time? It avoids bloodshed, it does move the criminals out of that particular area, and you might even be able to keep an eye on where they go and why. 

Moving troops in then looks good, especially without a firefight. It asserts control, is a show of force, looks decisive, and it could present a chance to get that particular favela under control. It also keeps the military busy and maybe makes them feel a bit more important, which is an important factor in semi-democratic countries. 

Politics is mostly about appearances, and hoping that people don’t notice the bitter pill until it’s at least halfway down their throat. America is really bad at this. 

Just a caveat though: Haven’t done any research regarding the situation in Rio, or know my background on Brazil in depth. I’m just thinking out loud, based on experience in other corrupt “democratic” countries. 

“I can’t stand him any more, he’s a liar,” Mr Sarkozy said in French.

“You may be sick of him, but me, I have to deal with him every day,” Mr Obama replied.

As the eyes of the world are focused on the Palestinian statehood bid at the United Nations in New York, another troubling chapter is unfolding in Paris. The United States is on the brink of abandoning its decades-long leadership in several international organizations – a process that will fundamentally undermine American national security and economic interests.

At issue are two laws from the early 1990s that prohibit the United States from providing financial contributions to any United Nations entity that admits Palestine as a member. The laws are strict: if Palestine is admitted to a U.N. agency, the United States must stop paying its membership dues. The restrictions provide no authority for the president to waive these prohibitions even if it is in the national interest to do so.

With a clear majority of countries around the world prepared to back Palestinian ambitions at the United Nations, the United States is poised to lose its leverage over several U.N. bodies that advance American interests and promote our ideals.

The damage to Americans of a forced withdrawal would not stop there. The first U.N. agency from which the United States could be pushed out is UNESCO, which admitted Palestine as a member today. To Americans, UNESCO is best known for designating World Heritage Sites. It also leads global efforts to bring clean water to the poor, promotes educational and curriculum building in the developing world, and manages a tsunami early warning system in the Pacific, among other important tasks. This critical work would be jeopardized if UNESCO’s top funder stops paying its bills.

Let’s talk: Slobodan Milosevic

You probably remember the name of the Serbian president tried for war crimes and genocide. If you don’t, shame on you because all of this happened in recent living memory. 

After the breakup of Yugoslavia into its ethnic states (Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia & Herzogovina, Slovenia, and today Macedonia, Montenegro and allegedly Kosovo) Slobodan Milosevic was president of the new state of Serbia. 

However, he had some internal troubles. And he did what every desperate leader does when there are internal troubles: he focused hostility externally. He talked bout the superiority of Serbians over their neighbours, of the historical heritage they had holding back Islamic empires from Europe. He spoke about Islam as an infestation into Christian Europe. 

Serbians in general are not to blame for the massacres of Bosniaks and Bosnian Muslims, nor the Kosovars and Ethnic Albanians. This is just as Germans in general aren’t to blame for the Holocaust, Turks in general for the Armenian death marches, Americans and Europeans in general for colonialism. 

There is a going theory that sometimes distance has a softening effect. American colonists were far more destructive against the natives than the British in London were. In Canada and Australia, colonists tended to be more land hungry and more ruthless, but were held back by the restraining hand of London. It’s sometimes suggested that had America stayed British (and it could well have) the worst excesses against the native populations might have been lessened. 

In such a way, whatever ordinary Serbs might have been like at home, the Serbs living in Bosnia might have tended to more extremism. It was often Serbian volunteer militias in Bosnia which did the killings. There was a time when we talked of Sarajevo as a horrible war zone, almost like we talk about Mogadishu now.

To me it looks like an example of what happens when the distant power encourages brutality in its proxies, instead of restraining them. The worst part is that things tend to go out of control and you still have to take the blame for their excesses. 

It’s not to say that the Serbian military wasn’t involved in a number of violations, but it was war after all. 

Several of the people I meet from the former Yugoslavia are actually also hailing from other countries. I’ve met Croatians, Serbs and Bosnians from Poland, Australia, Sweden and elsewhere. All because war disperses people, and everyone’s a casualty.

Milosevic probably should have considered that in trying to save his seat in the short run, he doomed it in the long run. 

The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) will dominate the news in the coming days.  The PKK, a group known for its violent attacks against Turkey, is fast becoming part of the new trilateral power game between Turkey, Iran and Syria as Bashar al Assad crackdowns on demonstrators in his country.

Barack Obama shouldn’t have to make excuses for sending troops to Uganda.

‘I asked Tom Malinowski, the Washington director of Human Rights Watch, if he understood why the Obama administration had decided to send troops to Uganda. Yes, he did, he said: “Because they thought it was the right thing to do.”’

50statepress:

From USA Today:

The White House is condemning riots in Egypt that have left at least 26 people dead, most of them Coptic Christians who protested an attack on a church and signs of discrimination by the military government there.

It brings to mind this assessment and warning several months ago from Niall Ferguson (video here) - who, at the time, was seen by some as perhaps raining on the parade.

Everyone thought “Yay! The dictator’s down!” but never thought about what was replacing him. I don’t share Niall’s concerns about the Muslim Brotherhood, but there has been no positive work towards democracy, Brotherhood or not.