I have been working on this map, collecting news articles and documenting trends over the past couple years, and was surprised when it revealed that the world is deeply divided by two major spheres of influence that dominate and dictate global affairs.
The two major organizations at the center of this are NATO, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) headed by Russia and China. Both are military organizations with each member state promising to protect each others interests and come to aid in the event of war.
This setup creates an interesting situation whereby, at its most basic level, if any two nations from differing alliances go to war, it has the potential, through the domino effect, to bring war to every continent of the world. It is this fear of global conflict that creates such tension points as North and South Korea, Israel and Iran and Pakistan and India.
Ultimately, the global powers of the United States, Russia and China don’t want to go to war but neither is willing to cave to the influence of the other. This simple division of the world helps to explain almost every decision made on the global stage in recent years and will be a good prediction of how nations will interact in the years to come.
Soo… I’m curious about a few things:
Firstly, I really don’t think it’s possible to divide the world so neatly into spheres of influence. Not only is it no longer the Cold War Era, but every country frankly has rather complicated politics. I have personal experience in some of these countries, and quite honestly South East Asia, for example, is divided between being in China’s bed as it rises or banding together to resist its influence.
Vietnam, in particular, has had a hard time warming up to China because, well, China invaded it several times. They haven’t forgotten that.
Turkey might not be all that approving of its European allies but it IS still part of NATO. It’s certainly not closer to China than it is to the West.
What is Belarus doing there in blue at all? Last I checked… Luvchenko was anything but pro-Western.
Also, Africa is really not so cut-and-dry…
Basically saying, countries may not be pro-Western but that doesn’t mean that they’re necessarily pro-China.
In any case, with development going so fast in so many countries, analysts are still leaning towards a multipolar world. where America is the strongest of several strong nations all with their own spheres of influence. Although the BRIC idea is losing tract, other predictions haven’t quite nudged it off the pedestal… and yet it still poses an interesting hypothetical future.